Who Is Going To Form Next Government In Jharkhand?

Jharkhand has certainly become the politically most unstable state in the country, with 8 Chief Ministers and not to forget 8 Governors in last 12 years, since its inception in 2000. The latest political turmoil had been precipitated a week by the decision taken by JMM Party, when it pulled out of BJP Party led government as JMM alleged that BJP had failed to honour its commitment of power sharing agreement of 28 months each.

In the 81 elected members Jharkhand state assembly, we have 43 members (MLAs), who wants the formation of new elected Government from the present lot of elected MLAs; whereas remaining 38 MLAs want dissolution of assembly and the announcement of fresh election to seek new political mandate from the Jharkhand’s electorates. Let us see which political parties stand for what in the current political scenario, where 42 members is the number of majority in an 81 member’s state assembly.

Issue

Political Parties

MLAs

Grand Total
Parties want formation of new Government Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM)

18

Indian National Congress (INC)

13

Rashtriya Janta Dal (RJD)

5

Independents & Smaller Parties

7

43 MLAs

Parties want dissolution of assembly and fresh election Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP)

18

Jharkhand Vikas Morcha (JVM)

11

All Jharkhand Student Union (AJSU)

6

Janta Dal United {JD (U)}

2

Communist Party of India {CPI (ML)}

1

38 MLAs

It can be clearly deduced from the above table that the majority of MLAs want formation of new state government, so why don’t these political parties, viz., JMM, INC, RJD and others join hand to form a government based on their common minimum programme? Why can’t these political parties forget their differences and find common ground on the issue of Jharkhand and its people, so that they can give stable government for remaining 2 years period.

Perhaps, it is easier said than done.

It is because of the primary reason that most of the political parties in favour of formation of new government do not want to give leadership position (Chief Minister’s office) to JMM, as name of JMM party is most often remembered for their close association with the issue of corruption among the well-informed voters. With 2014 Lok Sabha election being just round the corner, last week BJP decided to sacrifice their Arjun Munda led coalition government than to give in to the demands of JMM to lead the government.

The thinking in the top echelons of Congress too is similar to BJP; it too does not want to risk forming a coalition government wherein JMM is leading the coalition and / or it too does not want to lend any kind of outside support to JMM led coalition, a la Madhu Koda type of government. At this juncture, Congress party can’t really afford to indulge in such political hara-kiri. Besides it must be mentioned that in 14 members Lok Sabha seats in Jharkhand, Congress party could only send only one MP in last election in 2009. So in such a political scenario, when with each passing day, Congress Party is losing its political ground in the state, the writing is clear on the wall.

So what are the most likely options in the state, as far as Government Formation is concerned?

Congress Party
Congress Party

1. Congress led state government in Jharkhand

In the coming days, weeks, or even in month (s) JMM has to agree to be a part of the government led by Congress party; or else JMM has to start preparing for fresh assembly elections. As Congress holds all the aces, at this point of time.

It is most likely that JMM would eventually agree to toe the Congress line, maybe after bargaining hard for its own survival. As JMM has reached point of no return, as distances between it and BJP grow wider in the coming days. Besides with JVM, it can never think of political alliance, as both parties have their roots in Santhal Pargana region of state.

It is now up to the political managers of Congress and JMM to hasten the process of government formation sooner than later.

But for that to happen, Congress must resolve its own leadership crisis in the Jharkhand state unit.

Or else, we are looking another round of Governor’s rule or perhaps JMM candidate to assume leadership position, as C.M.

2. Imposition of Governor’s rule in Jharkhand

The Governor’s rule has its own limitation, as it can’t be clamped for long period of time. Eventually, if no party is able to form the government in couple of months, we would have dissolution of state assembly and announcement of fresh election before the impending Lok Sabha’s election of 2014. We are sure that both JMM and Congress would seek to avoid this political scenario at all cost.

But it would also mean making political sacrifices on part of JMM, including giving up, their claims on the Chief Minister’s office. It isn’t easy for JMM leaders, but they would do that for their political survival in the long run. As JMM knows that its fortress in Santhal Pargana is being breached, slowly but surely, by its political rivals; it must stem its downslide by forming the government. Hope, in the coming days, the fog will clear and the proverbial political game of musical chair will come to end in Jharkhand.

But, until JMM comes to terms with changing political reality in state, we might see imposition of Governor’s Rule or should we say President’s Rule in state, for atleast couple of months, in coming days.

Sameer Bhagat
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Sameer Bhagat

Author, Salvaging Adidweep.
Sameer Bhagat
Join me
Sameer Bhagat

Written by

Author, Salvaging Adidweep.

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